Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 18.695040 21.308098 24.129746 27.399970 31.082620 35.098273 39.805667
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 14.656421 18.140470 22.194985 27.249695 33.369802 40.526899 49.517723
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.841768 16.749367 21.517194 27.739789 35.621894 45.246802 57.862111
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 11.313516 15.461182 20.739099 27.911774 37.364706 49.351780 65.653534
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 9.994176 14.228472 19.818080 27.686288 38.417637 52.475305 72.207204
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 9.082931 13.419004 19.335789 27.932104 40.021900 56.324368 79.858770
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 8.528303 13.029495 19.358250 28.818596 42.494751 61.419527 89.431081
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 7.710230 12.168995 18.622196 28.536783 43.253221 64.127585 95.770258
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 6.688323 10.901469 17.175975 27.079762 42.165902 64.088312 98.100711
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 6.336055 10.623867 17.171738 27.753930 44.241588 68.709316 107.442841
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.033519 10.392855 17.210375 28.477435 46.410350 73.554367 117.344742
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.568670 9.854492 16.718471 28.317900 47.175039 76.282898 124.127532
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.059822 9.208358 16.018278 27.794262 47.360591 78.177150 129.809842
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.703326 8.791511 15.661788 27.804694 48.401791 81.464278 137.868767
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.460769 8.550152 15.575348 28.248402 50.162714 85.966809 148.079848
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.197378 8.247168 15.356777 28.442182 51.500527 89.830194 157.419560
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.890579 7.836335 14.914900 28.206389 52.071196 92.426634 164.747449
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.684225 7.595865 14.757299 28.458666 53.494107 96.510176 174.766586
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 3.584540 7.551858 14.953056 29.360076 56.112893 102.758754 188.796532
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.333733 7.188261 14.525250 29.073542 56.557116 105.230361 196.331381
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.956508 6.536960 13.502078 27.590701 54.702362 103.526966 196.354648
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.867207 6.470958 13.606882 28.276816 56.934034 109.246406 209.974092
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 2.788089 6.419444 13.735154 29.013083 59.294979 115.302306 224.472249